According to a poll on Straight Talking Gooners taken earlier this afternoon/evening, a significant majority of Arsenal fans think that selling Robin van Persie this summer would be the most appropriate course of action. You should all be well aware by now (if you aren’t aware then where have you been for the 5 hours??) that Robin released a statement earlier today via his personal website in which he revealed that he will not be signing a new contract with Arsenal. This leaves the club in a very difficult position, because they have to decide between letting him leave on the cheap now or for free in a year’s time. The big question is whether he intends to see out the remaining year of his contract, or (as it appears) is preparing to manoeuvre a move away the club within the next few weeks.
Given his current contract situation and the fact that he and Wenger cannot seem to reach an agreement about how Arsenal can move forward, selling our captain this summer is most probably the only financially-viable option. If we leave it until January (to wait and see if he miraculously changes his mind) then Robin will be free to negotiate contracts with other clubs. The problem here is that other clubs would be unlikely to pay for a player that they could get for free a few months later. I am under no illusion that Arsenal are in the driving seat for this transfer. Following his statement, RvP’s value has most probably dropped significantly as other clubs now feel that they are in a great bargaining position.
I realise that 750+ Arsenal fans may not be completely representative of Arsenal fans worldwide, but I do think that we can learn a lot from this poll. Of particular interest is that 9% of Arsenal fans remain hopeful that van Persie can still be convinced to sign a new contract; whether these people have any sort of justification for feeling this way or are just completely deluded is anybody’s guess. It is also worth noting that 18% would be willing to let him leave for free in a year. I have to say outright that I feel that these people are wrong. What is the point missing out on a transfer fee in order to keep a player who no longer wants to be at the club? I say that we let him leave, take the cash, and try our best to replace him. However, I cannot put enough focus on the word “replace”. There is no point in cashing-in if the club has no intention to spend the money properly.
Arsenal.com have released a statement regarding van Persie’s situation. The club appear to be hopeful that van Persie will see out his final year at the club. I will have more on that slightly later.
Wether its best to sell him for the £20M or keep him would depend on how big his actual impact on the team is.
Dropping one place on the table means how much in lost price money? Close to 1 million now?
Lets say his impact is bigger than what can be rebuildt in 1 season, and the next season sees Arsenal drop to no. 5 on the table.
The direct cost in prize money would be around £2M.
In addition, they would lose out on more than £6M on guaranteed revenue from Champions League.
(Arsenal earned rougly £22M from CL in 2011/12)
On top of this comes the non-cash value of keeping and attracting players that would be lost with CL-attendance and dropping on the table, lower chance of getting TV-matches in PL etc..
It’s obviously hard to set a money value to RvPs contribution to Arsenal last season. However, given how close we have been to dropping out of CL the last 2 seasons, he might very well be worth more in pure cash than we’d like to admit.
Also there is ofc the issue of wether he would keep contributing at the same level if he was forced to sit out his contract. But it i in his interest to do so if he wants to move on to another top flight after ending his spell at Arsenal.
I will always admire RvP for what he has done for the club. And Im not saying he is a keeper at all costs. But the fact is that the cost of dropping on the table are probably bigger than the revenue we can expect to get for RvP. So the key issue is how much a likely departure will effect our ability to deliver results. There is no clear-cut answer I know, but there might be more value in hardballing it for Wenger than what first catches the eye.